Author Topic: The FIFA Women’s World Cup Finals will be expanded from 16 to 24 teams from 2015  (Read 4383 times)

Offline Rach_83

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The FIFA Women’s World Cup Finals will be expanded from 16 to 24 teams from 2015 onwards.

Although the 2011 tournament in Germany will stay at 16 finalists, FIFA Secretary General Jerome Valcke said that women’s football had advanced so much, it made sense to make the increase.

Valcke said after Thursday’s executive committee meeting on Robben Island in South Africa, “the value of women’s football around the world had become higher and higher.”

source: FG

Offline Samuel Vimes

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Was about to post... :)

Any ideas about how they allot the 23 (+ 1 host) spots?

AFC: 5 - at least. Obvious. North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China, Australia all very competent.
CONMEBOL: 2.5 - well, Argentina were slightly better, but really can't give more than half a spot after 0-11...
OFC: 1.5 - because NZ will win anyway, so might as well be a road for the non-NZ teams
CAF: 3 - will probably get another spot as everyone feels sorry for Africa. This despite African sides having failed to win any of their ten last matches in major tournaments since 2004 (and then against a team who had already qualified at the "let's make sure everyone gets plenty of matches" Olympics.)
CONCACAF: 3 - Jamaica is fourth best...

That's 14. I'm fairly sure they won't double UEFA's allotment and give Europe 9, though 9 of the world's 16 best sides by the FIFA rankings are UEFA teams, and the current qualification system means at least one of the semi-finalists of the Euro miss out (and possibly two if England miss seeding and draw France, Sweden or Norway - oh, and as a side note, they really should start using the same seeding points system as the men). I think Europe will get 7 (all of those are in the top 11 at the moment) - so that leaves 3 teams. Where on earth to get those?
« Last Edit: December 03, 2009, 10:22:10 PM by Samuel Vimes »
For when the One Great Scorer comes to mark against your name / He writes - not that you won or lost - but how you played the Game.

Offline Andreas Kolle

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My guess is that they will divide AFC into West and East and give West one free spot. It might not be fair, but it is more fair than giving OFC 1.5, based on what they have done. Giving Papua New Guinea even half a chance is still going to be messy. And if they play Paraguay or Colombia, chances are that whoever wins will be slaughtered. As for the other two, I think UEFA gets one and AFC gets the other.

What I hope for, however, is that the defending champion gets a free ride like in the old days. And that UEFA get ten spots. Nothing wrong with AFC, but those five you picked are the stand out best ones. UEFA has 4.5 now, which means that even if the .5 becomes 1, out of Norway, Sweden, England, Germany (in the future), France, Italy, Russia, Denmark and Ukraine four are out. Either of these are better than Vietnam, probably the best contender for the 6th spot.

Offline Samuel Vimes

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Doubt the free spot will be back. The men don't use it and I think FIFA prefer moderately constant continental quotas. (Well, back...the women have never used it. Norway had to qualify in 99 and the US were in the CONCACAF qualifier/championship in 95.)

I too hope for UEFA getting around 10, but went from a realistic (i.e. FIFA horse-trading) point of view, where the aim seems to be to get all confederations represented equally (see their youth cups). Since 1999 UEFA have gone from 6 to 4.5 spots. I doubt FIFA will give UEFA a greater share of the pie than they have now, though if you count the host it might be possible to get 8.

The West/East split is possible; it depends on the politics in the men's game, I'd think, and West Asia are disgruntled with missing out altogether on the men's 2010 Cup. In that case, though, the West Asian representative would easily be the worst side at the World Cup (assuming no 2nd Oceanian side, which I agree would be dismal). Jordan were the best Western side and lost 0-3 to Burma in qualifying. Iceland should beat them 6-0...

The revised guess with all 23 spots, then:

UEFA 8
AFC 5
CAF 3
CONCACAF 3
CONMEBOL 3
OFC 1

+ the host.

Having thought about it, Asia won't get more than 5 because of the drop-off in quality.

I agree that a more fair distribution would be: UEFA 11 - Asia 5 - CONCACAF 3 - CAF 1.5 - CONMEBOL 1.5 - OFC 1, but that'd be awarding spots by skill... :p
For when the One Great Scorer comes to mark against your name / He writes - not that you won or lost - but how you played the Game.

Offline Andreas Kolle

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I guess the point is that Europe already have a relatively big interest in women's football.  :D :'( and that tempting other continents is a better idea.

Then again, a team that lost 1-5 to Japan might not be the best contender either. ;)

Offline Eurycantha

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At the WWC 2015 (in Canada?) my guess:
UEFA 6
Concacaf 4
AFC 5
CAF 4
Conmebol 4
OFC 1
 

That'd really be depressing...I'd bank on a Maes-less Belgium beating the 4th best team in Conmebol, probably in Concacaf and CAF too. And they're 20th in Europe. Admittedly Colombia did well at the U-20 cup, but it's rarely that predictive and they would be the third qualifier anyway.

Here's my guess, as of last year.

Samuel, I totally agree with you that UEFA should have more slots, but as I have explained on the
Dutch women football website www.vrouwenvoetbalnederland.nl and on the Belgian website www.vrouwenvoetballen.be, I don't think this will happen.

My explanation:
Looking at the men's U17 WC 2009 in Nigeria:
UEFA 6/AFC 4/CAF 5/OFC 1/Concacaf 4/Conmebol 4 = total 24

Looking at the men's U20 WC 2009 in Egypt:
UEFA 6/AFC 4/CAF 5/OFC 1/Concacaf 4/Conmebol 4 = total 24

Looking at the men's WC 2006 in Germany
UEFA 14/AFC 5/CAF 5/Concacaf 4/Conmebol 4 =total 32

Looking at the men's WC 2010 in South Africa
UEFA 13/AFC 4,5/CAF 6/Concacaf 3,5/Conmebol 4,5/OFC 0,5 = total 32

Looking at the women's WC 2011 in Germany
UEFA 5,5/AFC 3/CAF 2/Concacaf 2,5/Conmebol 2/OFC 1 = total 16

My guess is that the women's WC 2015 with 24 countries will have the same distribution as the men's
U17 and U20 in 2009.

And in the women WC UEFA will NEVER get (imho) the amount that the men got in the past and I think
that in Brazil 2014 UEFA will not get more than 11 and in 2018 not more than 9 (10 if an UEFA country
will be the organising country)

So I agree that the quality overall will become less due to the expansion from 16 to 24 countries without
taking into account that on the FIFA World Ranking in the first 24 countries there are more than 10
European countries!

But as you probably also know FIFA doesnot only look to quality, but see your own explanation above!

Offline Samuel Vimes

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I think U20 and U17 are different beasts; you can not only look at past performance there becasuse there's so much turnover in the squads from year to year, therefore the confederation quotas need to be more equal as the best four teams in the world could conceivably be African, say.

I know FIFA doesn't only look at quality, and to be fair, there is an argument for spreading the game to new countries - and the Olympic allocation is genuinely dismal and seems to be an argument for your point - but to me (though not to many others, I'd expect) it seems embarrassing to use the 0-11-drubbing by Argentina as an argument for not having 24 teams in Germany 2011, then double CONMEBOL's quota when one does expand it.
For when the One Great Scorer comes to mark against your name / He writes - not that you won or lost - but how you played the Game.